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Almost all major ocean carriers are preparing a tentative return to the Suez/Red Sea on Asia-Europe sailings, with COSCO's first westbound transit in over two years on 4 Oct 2026 and Premier Alliance bookings from November. Drewry's WCI fell to ~US$4,434/40ft; Asia-Europe rates have dropped 12 weeks running. A corridor read for India-Europe shippers.
India and Canada began the fifth round of CEPA negotiations from 5 Oct 2026 (India's team in Canada), after the fourth round closed in New Delhi on 18 Sep. Both sides aim to conclude by December 2026, with two chapters reportedly finalised and a goal of ~US$50bn in bilateral trade by 2030. A corridor read for India-to-Canada exporters.
India–US ocean freight has climbed to multi-month highs in October 2026 as vessel space tightens. Carriers diverting around the Strait of Hormuz, long port turnarounds and a reported ~40,000-container backlog at JNPT are squeezing capacity, lifting India–US East Coast rates to a reported 20-month high. A corridor read for exporters.
China–India container freight has more than doubled since mid-2026. Reports put Shanghai–Nhava Sheva near US$3,700/TEU (about US$3,850 per 40ft) and Shanghai–Chennai near US$3,600/TEU — up 20–25% month-on-month — as carriers shift capacity to East–West lanes and India's China imports surge. A corridor read for importers.
Carriers have layered peak-season and congestion surcharges onto India's main ocean export lanes through 2026 — PSS to North Europe and the Mediterranean, steep add-ons to the US East and Gulf coasts, Red Sea surcharges and overweight penalties from Indian ports. As Q4/festive demand peaks and congestion persists, exporters and forwarders should budget for elevated all-in costs and lock rates early. A corridor read.
The Finance Act 2026 omits Section 13(8)(b) of the IGST Act, the rule that taxed "intermediary" services at the supplier's location and blocked them from counting as exports. Paired with faster refund provisions, it could let agents, brokers and back-office service exporters finally zero-rate and claim refunds. The commencement date is still to be notified.
From 1 October 2026 the US applies a 100% tariff on branded/patented pharmaceutical imports under its Section 232 action, with carve-outs for firms building US plants. Generic medicines and biosimilars — India's core US export — are currently exempt, but a review within a year leaves the exemption at risk. A corridor read for India-to-USA pharma exporters.
The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism moved from reporting-only to financial liability on 1 January 2026. A 50-tonne annual de minimis now exempts ~90% of importers, but EU buyers of Indian iron, steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers and hydrogen above it must be authorised CBAM declarants, with the first certificate purchases from Feb 2027 for 2026 imports. Emissions data is now a sales issue.
The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) applies to large and medium operators from 30 December 2026 (small/micro: 30 June 2027). Indian exporters of coffee, cocoa, rubber, cattle/leather, soya, palm and wood must supply plot-level geolocation and feed a Due Diligence Statement into the EU's system. A corridor read for India-to-EU exporters with ~90 days to go.
Container freight on China–India lanes has more than doubled since mid-2026 — Shanghai–JNPA around USD 3,700/TEU and Shanghai–Chennai around USD 3,600, up 20–25% month-on-month — as a 27% surge in Chinese imports collides with carriers diverting capacity to East–West lanes. A corridor read for Indian importers.
The US has suspended its USD 800 de minimis exemption for low-value imports across all modes other than the postal network. Indian D2C brands, Amazon/Etsy sellers and small-parcel exporters that relied on duty-free entry for sub-USD-800 shipments now face duties and formal entry. A corridor read on how to adapt.
The EU's 21st Russia sanctions package (adopted late July 2026) listed around 51 entities for circumvention — including several in India — and bans supplying them dual-use or advanced-technology goods. It signals sharper EU scrutiny of third-country re-export and intermediary chains. What Indian exporters and forwarders should check.
India's finance minister said on 6 Oct 2026 that India–US trade talks have hit a "plateau," and the USTR called a deal not "imminent." With tariff levels still unsettled — a reported ~10% baseline after US courts curbed emergency tariffs, a separate law threatening up to 100% over Russian oil, and a pending Section 301 probe — India-to-US exporters face continued uncertainty. A corridor read.
The European Commission has sent the India–EU trade agreement to the EU Council for authorisation to sign, the next step after negotiations concluded in January 2026. The deal reportedly removes or reduces around 90% of tariff lines. It is not yet in force — signature, European Parliament consent and ratification remain. What exporters should prepare now.
A senior US official called the India–US trade deal "90-per cent-plus there" (26 Sep 2026), with signing expected "very soon." Commerce Minister Goyal joins the G20 Trade Ministerial in Milwaukee around 30 Sep–1 Oct and is set to meet USTR Greer, with a Rubio visit to India expected in October. Market-access details remain the sticking point. A corridor read for India-to-USA exporters.
The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) moved from its reporting-only transitional phase (ended 31 Dec 2025) into its definitive phase from 1 January 2026, when embedded carbon in imported iron & steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, hydrogen and electricity starts carrying a cost. As the India–EU FTA advances, EU-bound exporters must build verified emissions data now. A corridor read.
Major carriers are shifting Asia–Europe services back to the Suez Canal from the Cape of Good Hope. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd added four Gemini services via Suez (mid-Sep 2026) and COSCO made its first canal transit since the crisis. For India–Europe exporters this points to shorter transit and easing rates — but carriers stress routing depends on continued security. A corridor read.
Reports on 23 Sep 2026 say the India–US trade deal could face fresh delay as Washington weighs Section 301 probes into competing exporters (reportedly Pakistan, Sri Lanka, the Philippines). Commerce Minister Goyal is set to travel to the US for the G20 Trade Ministerial around 30 Sep, but a final deal is seen as unlikely there. A corridor read for India-to-USA exporters.
Carriers are layering fresh peak-season surcharges on Indian container bookings — CMA CGM reportedly around US$1,500/box to North Europe and the Mediterranean, and Maersk revising PSS for Indian Subcontinent to US/Canada West Coast from 21 Sep 2026. With rates near post-Red Sea highs, exporters face margin and booking pressure into Q4.
India has signalled it will finalise a trade deal with the US only once Washington offers a tariff rate better than — or at least on par with — competitors such as Vietnam and Bangladesh. A February 2026 understanding reportedly rolled the peak 50% tariff back toward 18%, but a full deal remains unsigned and details are unsettled. A corridor read for India-to-USA exporters on planning amid open-ended negotiations.